A deep dive into why I think Newcastle will get Top 4 this season

After an off-season of boardroom tumult, fan discontentment and malicious tabloid headlines that refused to go away, the upcoming 24-25 season for Newcastle United seems almost impossible to predict. But in my humble opinion, there is a lot of cause for optimism this year. Here are my thoughts on the season ahead, both for Newcastle and for the Premier League as a whole.

1st - Manchester City

2nd - Arsenal

3rd - Liverpool

4th - Newcastle

5th - Tottenham

6th - Aston Villa

7th - Manchester United

Man City and Arsenal to battle it out for top spot

It's been a huge summer of change at every single club in last season’s ‘top eight’, except at the two who were head and shoulders above the rest, and in my opinion, still are.

Manchester City and Arsenal are still my favourites for the top two, as boring as that sounds. Kevin de Bruyne and Ederson nearly made things interesting with rumours they were considering pastures new... but have both ultimately stayed put.

Julian Alvarez, while undoubtedly talented, is nowhere near the aforementioned duo in matters of importance, and Arsenal haven't strengthened any of the problem areas that arguably cost them the title last year; namely, Goalkeeper, Left Back and Striker.

Are the other Top Four candidates as formidable as they once were?

I don't think Liverpool will suffer a post-Klopp slump to anywhere near the scale that most rival fans are hoping for. Arne Slot seems like a cool, laidback guy who has a team already buying into a slower, calmer, possession-based approach that should make his team harder to break down on the counter-attack; even if it means there won't be quite as much blockbuster entertainment at the other end. The lack of incomings means I don't see them troubling the top two. That midfield still looks rather average, and murmurs still persist about the futures of Mo Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold; all with just twelve months left on their Anfield deals.

But most importantly, I'm going to stick my head on the line and put Newcastle 4th for three reasons:

1) We've retained the likes of Bruno, Isak, and even Eddie Howe from the persistent media whispers.

2) No European football gives us the easiest schedule out of anyone in the top eight.

3) The other Top Four hopefuls don't look as intimidating as in past seasons.

If we can finish Fourth once with an inferior squad to the one we have now, and finish Seventh with almost an entire XI missing for the second half of the season, why can't we push for Top Four again with players returning?

Can Chelsea amass as many points as they have players?

Tottenham imploded in the final months of the season at a moment where Villa looked extremely catchable in Fourth. I think the stubbornness to persist with a high line might be Ange's ultimate undoing, but unlike their North London neighbours, they have at least addressed the striker issue by bringing in Dominic Solanke, despite the rather questionable price tag for a player who turns 27 in September and only has one prolific Premier League goalscoring campaign on his CV.

Aston Villa will likely encounter similar teething issues to what we did last year. They already have two extra Champions League games than we had thanks to the new format, and have also seemed to opt for quantity over quality in their recruitment. Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby will be big misses, and ask any Everton fan if they're gutted with £50 million pounds for Amadou Onana and they will likely laugh in your face. Jaden Philogene is a top talent to watch out for, though, and was a player I earmarked as one Newcastle should take a look at earlier in the year.

Seventh was a three-way shootout between one club in freefall, another in stagnation and another in rejuvenation. Chelsea have imploded, losing the manager that carried them to sixth last season despite a terrible start, along with alienating other standout performers such as Conor Gallagher and Trevoh Chalobah. Manchester United have persisted with Erik Ten Hag (who I think is a much more capable cup manager than league manager), and have spent a huge chunk of their transfer budget (over 100 million euros) on two players who don't necessarily improve their starting XI. Questions have to be asked of how much Leny Yoro actually wanted the move to Old Trafford, and now he’s suffered an injury that unfortunately rules out the young defender for three months. 36-year old Jonny Evans may have to step in again and play a much bigger part this season than Ten Hag initially wanted.

West Ham United, by contrast, have recruited extremely well, but whether those new signings mesh together quickly enough, and the future of talisman Lucas Paqueta both remain to be seen.

Despite further Old Trafford setbacks, Ten Hag has a track record of flattering to deceive in the Premier League, so while I wouldn't be surprised to see West Ham usurp them in the Top Seven, I've plumped for Man Utd.

Chelsea? God knows... 12th again?

How will the promoted sides fare in the relegation scrap?

18th - Everton

19th - Southampton

20th - Leicester

Unlike a lot of Newcastle fans, I have no beef with Everton; passionate fans, old school club, proper manager in charge.

However, as he showed at Burnley, Sean Dyche can only stem the tide for so long when every other factor is stacked against him. An aging backline, a shot-shy attack, and a midfield that looks drier than a desert... I think this might be one season too far. The ownership turmoil might also cast dark clouds of doubt to trickle downwards into the coaching staff and players. There’s also talk of further points deductions. They just can’t catch a break, can they?

Southampton seemed dead-certs for promotion in terms of the exciting young players at their disposal last year, but they only just scraped through by the skin of their teeth. I don't see enough solidity in defence or Premier League proven-quality in attack to keep them up. Oldboy Adam Armstrong faces a crucial season in which to prove he can cut it at Premier League level, after yet another impressive season in the Championship with 21 goals; the third time he’s managed 15+ goal hauls in the second tier. He’s 27 now though - and running out of time to avoid the comparisons to Dwight Gayle of “too good for the Championship; can’t cut it in the Premier League”. You just know he’s going to score at Saint James’ Park on Matchday One, don’t you?

Leicester showed just how easy they are to lose their rhythm last year when they almost threw away a gargantuan lead at Christmas and bottle the title. Luckily for them, they avoided 'doing a Newcastle' and limped over the line; but Steve Cooper doesn't inspire confidence as a Premier League manager. Add in the fact they've lost talisman Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and it looks like the impending points deduction will be the final nail in the coffin before the season has started?

But what about Ipswich? What can I say, I'm still a romantic at heart. The manager has the team singing from the same hymn sheet, they play chaotic, attacking football that can take those with frailer hearts by surprise, and who knows? They could go one better than gung-ho relegation candidates like Blackpool of 2010 and Luton of last season to stay up. Fortune favours the brave.

We need to keep an eye on West Ham

Outside shot for a cup win

If I was to pick anyone outside the ‘Superleague Six’ to win a cup, it would be West Ham. I just feel Villa will prioritise the Champions League over domestic cup competitions this year, and as for us? I’ll get to that later…

Dark Horses

West Ham and Ipswich, as mentioned above.

Underachievers

Where to start? Chelsea for mid-table? Man Utd to miss out on Top Six again? Brentford in a relegation scrap if Toney leaves? All very possible.

First Manager to go

Enzo Maresca. He already seemed out of his depth from day one. Then came the Enzo saga, then the Gallagher saga, then the signing of ten extra players along with the existing ones he needs to get to grips with. Gone by November? With these owners, quite possibly.

Ten Hag could be a dead man walking as well.

Will Newcastle finish the season empty handed?

So what about Newcastle? (Besides hopefully finishing Fourth…)

Cup Finishes

If there is any blemish on Eddie Howe's CV at Newcastle, it is his perceived 'inferiority complex' when it comes to the big away cup ties.

Granted, we were absolutely shafted with our cup ties in all three knockout competitions last season, but limp displays away at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad last year stick prominently in the memory. Gifted an early lead away at a floundering Chelsea, we were content to sit on the fragile 1-0 lead for the remaining 80+ minutes of the game, instead of going in for the kill. Naturally, in the dying minutes of the match, we gifted them a goal of their own when Kieran Trippier took a heavy touch in his own box which allowed £88 million pounds waste of space Mykhailo Mudryk to score an equaliser. We lost on penalties. You have to kill these teams off.

And against an admittedly much tougher opposition in the FA Cup, we followed our limp league display at the Etihad up with another ‘nothing’ performance. City didn’t have to get out of first gear thanks to two deflected early goals. In our two visits there last season, we managed two shots on target in 180 minutes.

In the league at Saint James' Park, I fancy us against anyone. But away from home, there is still a sense of dread at going to the big away grounds like Anfield and the Emirates, as well as the two mentioned above. Eddie needs to ditch the imposter syndrome and small-club mentality against the big guns in the cups. On our day, we can beat Man City and Co. He now needs to set us up in a way that plays to our strengths and doesn't fall into the opposition’s hands.

Unfortunately, I don't see us banishing the painful memories of Casemiro and Rashford at Wembley next season. A semi-final is as far as I think we'll go; with the main focus being that top 4 push.

Newcastle have a couple of youngsters who could really impress this season

Top scorer (or in our case, how many will Isak get)

According to Premier League official data, Alexander Isak converted 21 goals and had 40 ‘big chances’ last season. Given his talent, that seems a low conversion rate by his lofty standards. Away days at West Ham and Old Trafford come to mind for me, as well as the penalty miss against Burnley. He also missed eight Premier League games. If he can show the clinical edge we know he's capable of, and stay fit for the entire campaign, he can easily eclipse the 25-goal milestone and even push for 30.

I'll go with 27 League goals and 30 in all competitions.

Breakthrough Player this Season

Judging from pre-season, there is a clutch of youngsters coming through hoping to emulate Lewis Miley's heroics from last season.

Miley's brother Jamie has looked solid and assured in midfield. Will Osula was unlucky to see a goal disallowed on his debut versus Brest, and seems to have a chaotic, bull-in-a-china-shop presence that is reminiscent of Darwin Nunez. I think he could be a real handful against tiring legs as an impact sub and get a few starts in the cup competitions.

The standout youngster for me though has been Trevan Sanusi. Combining Craig Bellamy pace with Allan Saint-Maximin's box of tricks, the winger could be a real wildcard against stubborn low-block defences this year. Sanusi plays with a real playground swagger that seems to be getting coached out of players more and more these days. If he can retain and refine these maverick tendencies and add in the workrate and energy that is a hallmark of an Eddie Howe player, he could far eclipse the Newcastle careers of previous fan favourites like ASM and Hatem Ben Arfa.

In terms of staking a regular claim for first team football, I think this is the season that Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall make the full-back spots their own.

We perhaps didn't strike while the iron was hot last year in the transfer market in terms of ready-made, first XI starters, (a decision that was laid plain even more by the ban of marquee signing Sandro Tonali). But what we did do was secure ourselves two possible future England international full backs for the price of half a Moises Caicedo.

Their trial year of bedding into Howe's system and embracing his philosophy is over, and I think they're ready to shine this campaign.

King Joelinton is going to be massive for Newcastle this season

Player I’m most excited to watch

He's my favourite Newcastle player, not just for his incredible Hollywood-esque redemption arc and the smile he always has on his face, but also the unique skill-set he brings as the midfield fulcrum of this team.

Joelinton has been a star reborn as a midfield destroyer in this Newcastle side. You don't realise what a huge presence (physically and metaphorically) he is until you watch him in the flesh. He covers so much ground, and offers the oxymoron combination of Thor-like strength and delicate flair - capable of shielding the ball from two to three players at a time, before dancing through them and playing in Isak or Gordon.

With Tonali back soon and Joelinton's own injury issues hopefully behind him, I can't wait to see what kind of season he has alongside compatriot (and best man) Bruno Guimaraes.

How do you feel about our predictions?

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